Thursday, November 18, 2010

Exelixis (EXEL): Unusual Options Action - When Lottery Tickets Make Sense

Exelixis (EXEL) shares are up 21% this morning to $5.75 after positive prostate cancer results from XL184.

On November 16th, Tuesday, I had the following note out to clients:

"Exelixis (EXEL), the Biotech with a cup and handle pattern, with 2,575 November $5 calls bought vs OI of 2,425, traders paying $0.15 offer with shares at $4.40 and calls expiring in 3 days. The Company will present data from XL184 on Thursday, November 18th at 7:30am, and will also host an Investor Day on December 2nd. Shares trade 2.95X cash value, and the update to its prostate cancer drug is expected to move shares, November IV at 180.8% versus December at 92.44%. The measured move on a break of $4.80 would be North of $6.80, so the calls are lottery tickets, but could pay off nicely."

These calls are likely to be up at least 400% on the open! The cup and handle chart was a sweet set-up as well (Chart I Posted from 11-15 in Chat Below)

3 comments:

  1. Can you comment on Dec puts activity (6 strike), over 5000 contacts sold/bought

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  2. Yes, saw some buying in those, these Biotechs generally pullback after big moves as a lack of near term catalysts to keep shares elevated, but also saw longer dated put selling at $4 strike, so future is bright here

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